Back to the Analog Future - Where is my fax machine?

By Scott Tilley, ASCF Senior Fellow

July 20, 2022

You’ve probably heard the phrase, “The 80s called, and they want their fax machine back.” This phrase is usually uttered in derision towards some Luddite who won’t give up their antiquated habits and who doesn’t want to try new technology. Until recently, I thought the Luddite in question was hopelessly out of touch with the modern world and doomed to inevitable obsolescence. Now, I’m not so sure. Maybe the Luddite is on to something. Maybe we’re headed back to an analog future.

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On July 8, Rogers Communications (one of Canada’s three major telecom companies) suffered a system-wide service outage. The outage affected more than 12 million Rogers customers across the country. They lost Internet access, cellphone networks, and bank transactions. For those in Florida, think of this as a major hurricane that knocks out power and communications, but the outage is in every state simultaneously. No browsing the web. No cell phones. No text messages. No 911 calls (for Internet phones). No ATM withdrawals. No credit cards.

Imagine if a significant percentage of America went offline all at once. Most of the digital technology we use in our everyday lives would be unavailable. Much of our national infrastructure would shut down or run amok without proper control. Pharmacies couldn’t fill prescriptions. Hospitals couldn’t access electronic health records, causing surgeries to be canceled. Flights would be grounded. Gas would be unavailable at most pumps. There would be a dash for groceries. You get the picture.

If this sounds apocalyptic, that’s because it is.

The official line is that Rogers went down due to a faulty maintenance update. This reason is somewhat plausible since the software that controls telecom systems is very large and incredibly complex. Moreover, bad patches cause all kinds of problems in software systems every day; the literature of full of case studies relating how “hot swaps” produce unintended consequences when things inevitably go awry. But these procedures usually have localized (although with possible knock-on) effects; they don’t typically take the whole infrastructure down all at once.

The more paranoid theory is that Rogers was the victim of a cyberattack. Such an attack could infect the entire system, and quite quickly, if it was able to circumvent the system’s security protocols. The news is full of examples of enterprises subjected to ransomware demands and other forms of cybercrime. This misuse of technical power is highly asymmetrical: it’s relatively easy to carry out, there is little chance of getting caught and/or prosecuted, and it’s extremely lucrative. In fact, these digital infections are becoming endemic: they are so common that one of the fastest growing industries is cyber insurance with policies to protect against precisely the sort of thing Rogers experienced. But the policies don’t usually cover the consumer.

The most alarming theory is unlikely to have occurred in the Rogers situation, but it might happen in the near future. Our government has known for a long time that the detonation of an atomic weapon low in the atmosphere over a densely populated area would cause widespread damage. Not the physical kind, although that is certainly possible, but the digital kind. Any electronic device operating without shielding (almost everything) would be burned out by the blast’s electromagnetic pulse (EMP). It’s a nightmare scenario that keeps risk planners up at night – as it should.

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If most of our digital devices didn’t work, what would work? The answer can be found in the average person’s response to the Rogers outage. It was a real-world, real-time case study of a modern and highly-connected economy being forced to operate without its backbone, and like our human bodies, backbones are clearly not digital – they are very analog.

How would you communicate? Satellite phones might still work, but almost no one has one. However, old-fashioned landlines would almost certainly be available. Unfortunately, I’ve not had a landline in nearly twenty years, so I’d be out of luck. That makes me wonder, are there still dial-up modem services available? I can almost hear the old AOL 56K “connecting” sounds now.

Ham radios might be an option. There are a surprising number of amateur radio enthusiasts still around. Maybe that old CB radio could do the trick too.

How would you buy anything? Without credit and debit cards, how is commerce transacted? The Rogers outage affected the Interac system, which is used for direct debit payments and fund transfers in Canada. As a result, many businesses were forced to switch to cash only. But who carries cash anymore? And forget about that digital wallet – useless. Perhaps a barter and trade system would be the way to go.

Maybe I could ask my daughter to uncover the dusty old fax machine in the garage and see if it can be resurrected. But there’s that lack-of-landline problem. And the fact that she’s never heard of a fax machine.

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