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Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes on the full range of topics relating to national defense, foreign policy and international security. Dowd’s commentaries and essays have appeared in Policy Review, Parameters, Military Officer, The American Legion Magazine, The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, The Claremont Review of Books, World Politics Review, The Wall Street Journal Europe, The Jerusalem Post, The Financial Times Deutschland, The Washington Times, The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Examiner, The Detroit News, The Sacramento Bee, The Vancouver Sun, The National Post, The Landing Zone, Current, The World & I, The American Enterprise, Fraser Forum, American Outlook, The American and the online editions of Weekly Standard, National Review and American Interest. Beyond his work in opinion journalism, Dowd has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer; congressional aide; and administrator, researcher and writer at leading think tanks, including the Hudson Institute, Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. An award-winning writer, Dowd has been interviewed by Fox News Channel, Cox News Service, The Washington Times, The National Post, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and numerous radio programs across North America. In addition, his work has been quoted by and/or reprinted in The Guardian, CBS News, BBC News and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dowd holds degrees from Butler University and Indiana University. Follow him at twitter.com/alanwdowd.

ASCF News

Scott Tilley is a Senior Fellow at the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes the “Technical Power” column, focusing on the societal and national security implications of advanced technology in cybersecurity, space, and foreign relations.

He is an emeritus professor at the Florida Institute of Technology. Previously, he was with the University of California, Riverside, Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute, and IBM. His research and teaching were in the areas of computer science, software & systems engineering, educational technology, the design of communication, and business information systems.

He is president and founder of the Center for Technology & Society, president and co-founder of Big Data Florida, past president of INCOSE Space Coast, and a Space Coast Writers’ Guild Fellow.

He has authored over 150 academic papers and has published 28 books (technical and non-technical), most recently Systems Analysis & Design (Cengage, 2020), SPACE (Anthology Alliance, 2019), and Technical Justice (CTS Press, 2019). He wrote the “Technology Today” column for FLORIDA TODAY from 2010 to 2018.

He is a popular public speaker, having delivered numerous keynote presentations and “Tech Talks” for a general audience. Recent examples include the role of big data in the space program, a four-part series on machine learning, and a four-part series on fake news.

He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Victoria (1995).

Contact him at stilley@cts.today.

Caruzo: Venezuela – The Country with Two Presidents, Two Governments, and Zero Solutions

Friday, January 15, 2021

Categories: ASCF News Emerging Threats National Preparedness

Comments: 0

It has now been two years since the start of the new chapter in Venezuela’s ongoing political crisis.

The end of Maduro’s first term and his “re-election” under an illegitimate and marred electoral process were the main factors that led to Juan Guaidó assuming the mantle of interim president on January 23, 2019, as per our constitution.

Now, two years later, we find ourselves not just with two dueling presidents, but with dueling legislative parliaments following the seating of the socialist regime’s new National Assembly. As it stands, we have two executive, legislative, and judicial branches. Two competing factions both claim to be the legitimate officials of each branch of government. With double the government, Venezuela remains totally devoid of any tangible solution to the ongoing collapse of a socialist project that has left us as less than what we were or could’ve been.

The answer to the question of who is the “legitimate” president of Venezuela is one that greatly depends on who you ask and their personal ideology. On one hand, you have the ruling socialist regime in Venezuela, led by Nicolás Maduro, who counts with the support of China, Russia, Cuba, Turkey, and Iran, among others. Maduro controls the nation’s military, which gives him the ability to enforce his claim to power.

Rivaling Maduro is the interim government led by Juan Guaidó, supported by countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and international entities such as the Organization of American States. A limited number of diplomatic representatives spread across the globe are also part of Guaidó’s presidency, but Maduro’s regime still controls the majority of our diplomatic posts.

Guaidó, a relatively unknown figure at the time, was chosen not because of his track record, but because after two decades of mistakes on behalf of the opposition’s leadership, they had to bring in someone new to regain rightfully lost trust.

Guaidó promised us three things when taking power: the end of Maduro’s usurpation of power, a transitional government, and free elections. As of January of 2021, none of this has come to pass, and the effervescent trust once placed upon Juan Guaidó has all but evaporated. I personally approached Guaidó’s presidency with cautious optimism, not because I believed in him, but because it simply was the hand dealt to us at the time.

Following Guaidó’s proclamation as interim president, Venezuela saw yet another brief period of intense protests and brutal repression that escalated into a series of events that took place on April 30, 2019. That day, Guaidó claimed that he had convinced military leaders that he was their true commander-in-chief, meaning Maduro’s term was finally, in practice, over. He was wrong.

Following Guaidó’s failure to remove Maduro and the socialist rule on that day, support to the opposition and Guaidó began to rapidly wane — sending us back to where we started. Protests continued to take place over the remainder of 2019 and in 2020, but none of them had the same intensity as the ones lived during those first four months of 2019.

Guaidó’s presidency, while theoretically legal, does not, in practice, exert any power whatsoever in the country. You may reject both Guaidó and Maduro — but opening defying the rule of the latter can get you thrown in prison, tortured, or worse. Maduro and the socialist party that he presides over have full control over the country and its institutions, having recently seized control of Venezuela’s National Assembly through another skewed election process after they had lost it in the elections that took place in December 2015.

This new parliament counts on a small fraction of collaborationists that masquerade as “opposition” legislators, including figures such as Luis Parra, who was part of a ploy to block and strip Juan Guaidó of the presidency of the National Assembly in early 2020, an action that got him sanctioned by the U.S. government. Diosdado Cabello, socialist party strongman and suspected drug lord, and Maduro’s own son, “Nicolasito” Maduro Guerra, are also among the rogues’ gallery presided by Jorge Rodríguez, a man who has occupied a multitude of positions on the Bolivarian government and is the brother to current Vice President Delcy Rodríguez.

For all intents and purposes, the opposition-led National Assembly’s 2016-2020 term ended on January 5, 2021. However, before its term came to an end, a reform to the transitional laws that it approved was passed to extend its term through the year 2021, which has now resulted in two completely different National Assemblies existing and legislating at the same time while competing for international recognition — again, with the Socialist Party’s parliament the one truly wielding legislative power within Venezuela’s borders.

Even before fighting off an evil twin, the opposition-led National Assembly had for years not been able to use any of its legislative faculties, nor was it able to pass a single new law – as the Venezuelan Supreme Court, stacked with Maduro cronies, declared the parliament in contempt mere days after the start of its term, rendering all its acts null and void. To counter the pro-Maduro Supreme Court, the National Assembly designated its own Supreme Court in 2017. All of its members were rapidly forced to go into exile, making their actions symbolic at best.

Venezuela has been fractured and extremely polarized after more than two decades of skirmishes between the chavistas and the opposition (or escuálidos, as they’ve been respectively become to be known), with these two dual governments simply being the latest manifestation of that schism. This divide is all my generation has come to know and it does mold you, in a way, whether you like it or not. Thankfully, I still retain some faint memories of how things used to be before the rise of Hugo Chávez to power. While those weren’t perfect days, it was far better than what we’ve gone through since 1999.

Life blessed Venezuela with an abundance of natural resources and beautiful landscapes but, unfortunately, we seem to have been cursed with our politicians — and with our lack of hindsight when it comes to choosing them. Case in point, Hugo Chávez’s 1998 presidential victory, which followed an attempt at a violent military coup in 1992.

With a lack of alternatives and zero hope left in the Venezuelan politicians, regular citizens have simply resigned once more to playing the role that the collapse of the socialist regime and its “Fatherland Plan” has turned them into: survivors.

While Maduro and Guaidó decide what to do with each other’s respective governments, people still have to wrestle with nonstop inflation while attempting to procure some of those U.S. greenbacks that are ever-so-life-saving in these times, as well as dealing with the large repertoire of problems that range from gasoline to water and power shortages — all made worse by ten months of ongoing Chinese Coronavirus lockdowns and quarantine measures of intermittent intensity that have severely limited the livelihood of many.

As a famous Venezuelan comedian from before Chávez’s time used to say, “governments come and go, but the hunger remains.” In these trying days, Venezuelans are more afraid of hunger than they are of the coronavirus. Hope and optimism are hard to come by. While we may have two presidents, two parliaments, and two supreme courts, nothing has improved, and there’s hardly any reason to think that it will in the near future.

PHOTO: YURI CORTEZ/AFP via Getty Images

LINK: Venezuela – The Country with Two Governments, and Zero Solutions (breitbart.com)

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