Free World Allies Rising to Authoritarian Challenge

Part one of this series offered a snapshot of today’s axis of authoritarian regimes and the here-and-now threats they pose to the Free World. This essay details the allied response to these threats.

Euro-Atlantic
Again, we start in Europe, where NATO serves as the beating heart of the global system of alliances America built in the wake of World War II.

Thanks to major investments announced in 2020, Britain is riding its largest wave of defense spending since the Cold War’s end. Germany is doubling defense spending to 2 percent of GDP—something Washington and NATO have been begging Berlin to do since 2006. Poland—thrust to the frontlines of Cold War 2.0 by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—is increasing defense spending to 4 percent of GDP this year. Romania is increasing defense spending by 23.7 percent for FY2023. Belgium’s defense budget is 10.9 percent larger than a year ago; Croatia’s is up 62.5 percent; the Greek defense budget is 49.6 percent larger; Italy’s is up 6 percent; Spain’s 7.7 percent; France’s 5 percent. European governments are increasing defense spending by 53 percent between 2021 and 2026. And the U.S. and its Euro-Atlantic allies form the core of a 50-nation coalition that’s sustaining Ukraine with vast amounts of military and economic aid.

Beyond—though no doubt related to Putin’s war on Ukraine—Sweden and Finland are joining NATO. NATO’s military capability and infrastructure are deployed further east than even the most hawkish NATO-phile could have imagined 13 months ago. NATO had four “rotational” battle groups in Eastern Europe before February 2022. Today, it has eight battle groups in Eastern Europe that look awfully permanent. NATO’s members are closer internally than at any time since 9/11. And NATO’s value is recognized across Europe, North America, and even the Indo-Pacific more than at any time since the Berlin Wall’s collapse.

For the first time ever, NATO, in 2022, invited the leaders of Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand to participate in an alliance summit. In another first, NATO identified the PRC as a challenge, vowed to defend freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific, and committed to work with “partners in the Indo-Pacific to tackle cross-regional challenges and shared security interests.” This Atlantic-Pacific grouping is already bearing fruit: Japan and South Korea are participating in NATO’s Cyber Defense Center. Japan is partnering with Britain and Italy on a sixth-generation fighter bomber. France has deployed the carrier Charles de Gaulle throughout the region, joined the U.S. in enforcing freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and sailed warships through the Taiwan Strait.

As Gen. James Mattis observed long before last year’s invasion of Ukraine, “If we did not have NATO today, we would need to create it.”

Indo-Pacific
Spurred by Beijing’s aggressive actions, America’s Indo-Pacific allies were a step ahead of Europe in recognizing the re-emergence of an authoritarian axis.

Japan is almost-doubling defense spending, has increased defense spending annually for more than a decade, and is on track to become the world’s third-highest defense-spending power. With those resources, Japan is upconverting its helicopter carriers into full-fledged aircraft carriers armed with F-35Bs, working closely with the U.S. on missile defense, and purchasing some 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles to enhance regional deterrence.

Australia is increasing defense spending 40 percent this decade; expanding its combat force by a third; and fielding new submarines, anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine systems, cyber-defenses and F-35s. Australia is hosting U.S. Marines, F-22s and B-52s; training with Japan, India and the U.S.; and working closely with Britain and the U.S. as part of the new AUKUS alliance to develop hypersonic missiles, electronic-warfare systems, artificial intelligence and additional nuclear-powered submarines to protect Indo-Pacific waters.

India has increased defense spending by 49 percent the past decade, has boosted its defense budget 10 percent for the coming year and just commissioned its second aircraft carrier. The U.S. and India are finalizing plans to utilize Indian ports to service U.S. warships. And in a signal to Beijing, U.S. Army units joined Indian troops in late 2022 for exercises just 62 miles from the India-PRC border.

South Korea is increasing defense spending by 7.1 percent annually, boosting its F-35 fleet, building an aircraft carrier and fortifying its missile defenses.

The U.S., Australia, Japan and India are turning the Quad Dialogue into a security bulwark against China. The Quad democracies are sharing satellite imagery, conducting large-scale naval maneuvers, deepening cooperation on supply-chain resilience, building secure 5G networks, partnering on cybersecurity and expanding intelligence sharing.

In the Middle East, Iran’s malign actions have triggered a head-turning deepening of security, commercial and economic ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. These nations, along with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are working more closely with the U.S. on freedom of navigation, missile defense, counter-terrorism and joint training. Indeed, dozens of regional partners recently contributed 7,000 personnel and 35 warships to a large-scale maritime exercise spanning the Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and Indian Ocean. In addition, Israel and the U.S. carried out their largest-ever joint exercise earlier this year, which featured 12 warships, more than 140 warplanes and 7,500 personnel.

Kuwait hosts 13,500 U.S. troops. U.S. air assets operate out of al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Bahrain serves as headquarters for the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are collaborating on a military training mission. The Pentagon relies on what it calls the “CENTCOM Coalition”—enfolding Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, UAE, and 40 other partners—to maintain some semblance of security in the volatile Middle East. Although these assets, partnerships, and efforts continue to support the campaign against ISIS, they are increasingly focused on containing and deterring Iran’s terrorist tyranny.

Reminder
“Part of our ability to deter,” Gen. Kyle Ellison, vice-chief at the Office of Naval Research, explains, “is making it not about one versus one, but one versus two, or one versus three, or one versus four”—or one versus 10, 12, 32 or more.

“We put ourselves, by our own will and by necessity, into defensive alliances with countries all around the globe,” President Kennedy reminded the American people. What was true in 1963, at the height of Cold War I, remains just as true 60 years later, in these early moments of Cold War 2.0.