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Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes on the full range of topics relating to national defense, foreign policy and international security. Dowd’s commentaries and essays have appeared in Policy Review, Parameters, Military Officer, The American Legion Magazine, The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, The Claremont Review of Books, World Politics Review, The Wall Street Journal Europe, The Jerusalem Post, The Financial Times Deutschland, The Washington Times, The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Examiner, The Detroit News, The Sacramento Bee, The Vancouver Sun, The National Post, The Landing Zone, Current, The World & I, The American Enterprise, Fraser Forum, American Outlook, The American and the online editions of Weekly Standard, National Review and American Interest. Beyond his work in opinion journalism, Dowd has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer; congressional aide; and administrator, researcher and writer at leading think tanks, including the Hudson Institute, Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. An award-winning writer, Dowd has been interviewed by Fox News Channel, Cox News Service, The Washington Times, The National Post, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and numerous radio programs across North America. In addition, his work has been quoted by and/or reprinted in The Guardian, CBS News, BBC News and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dowd holds degrees from Butler University and Indiana University. Follow him at twitter.com/alanwdowd.

ASCF News

Scott Tilley is a Senior Fellow at the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes the “Technical Power” column, focusing on the societal and national security implications of advanced technology in cybersecurity, space, and foreign relations.

He is an emeritus professor at the Florida Institute of Technology. Previously, he was with the University of California, Riverside, Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute, and IBM. His research and teaching were in the areas of computer science, software & systems engineering, educational technology, the design of communication, and business information systems.

He is president and founder of the Center for Technology & Society, president and co-founder of Big Data Florida, past president of INCOSE Space Coast, and a Space Coast Writers’ Guild Fellow.

He has authored over 150 academic papers and has published 28 books (technical and non-technical), most recently Systems Analysis & Design (Cengage, 2020), SPACE (Anthology Alliance, 2019), and Technical Justice (CTS Press, 2019). He wrote the “Technology Today” column for FLORIDA TODAY from 2010 to 2018.

He is a popular public speaker, having delivered numerous keynote presentations and “Tech Talks” for a general audience. Recent examples include the role of big data in the space program, a four-part series on machine learning, and a four-part series on fake news.

He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Victoria (1995).

Contact him at stilley@cts.today.

In Violent Shift, Market Now Says Fed Is Likely To Raise Rates by 75 Basis Points

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Categories: ASCF News Economic Security

Comments: 0

Source: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/06/14/in-violent-shift-market-now-says-fed-is-likely-to-raise-rates-by-75-basis-points/

Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images

In a violent market shift, trading in the futures market now implies a better than 90 percent chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate target by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday.

The market has reacted to the latest inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, both of which showed prices still rising at a rapid pace. The University of Michigan’s survey of consumers and a survey by the New York Fed both showed near-term inflation expectations rising, a sort of vote of no-confidence that the Fed will be able to tame inflation soon.

A week ago, prices for Fed Funds futures implied less than a four percent chance of a 75 basis point hike and a 96 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike. Now it implies a 90.5 percent chance of the bigger hike, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool.

Economists at J.P. Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs now say they see a 75 basis point hike.

A Wall Street Journal article on Monday night appeared to hint that Fed officials were now leaning toward a 75 basis point hike. The article said official wouldn’t be “constrained by their previous guidance” of a 50-basis-point increase. Both Goldman and J.P. Morgan analysts cited the article in their client notes, saying it appeared to be a message from the Fed to prepare the market for a 75 basis point increase.

An even bigger hike is possible. J.P. Morgan economist Feroli wrote that “one might wonder whether the true surprise would actually be hiking 100bp, something we think is a non-trivial risk.”

Fed officials began a two-day meeting on Tuesday that will conclude Wednesday. A decision on interest rates is scheduled for 2 p.m.

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