Iran Satellite Launch Reveals Gains in Missile Program

When Iran launched its first military satellite into orbit last week, commanders in the control center erupted in cheers, some of them wearing surgical masks to protect against the new coronavirus, others kissing the bare cheeks of their comrades.

“Thanks to God, today we are a superpower,” Brig. Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ aerospace force, declared the next day.

While the scenes on state television on April 22 marked a foray into space, they revealed something more: the use of technology that can be developed into missiles with the potential to reach Europe and the U.S.

The launch marked the coming out of a military program that Tehran has kept mostly under wraps for a decade. U.S. officials and arms-control experts say that for Iran, following a path similar to North Korea’s, the satellite program likely serves as a guise for the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

“It is a very sophisticated program with very sophisticated technology,” said Fabian Hinz, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif., said of the satellite. “They can move beyond this if they want.”

There are strong indications that the Revolutionary Guard’s space program is aimed at acquiring long-range ballistic missile technology, he added.

The key piece of technology on display was the rocket carrying the satellite, which used a motor with several features that were new for Iran. Those included a light carbon fiber casing and a moving nozzle for flight control that is also used in long-range ballistic missiles.

The rocket’s motor also used solid fuel, rather than liquid, enabling the use of smaller missiles and more mobile launch vehicles that would be less exposed to enemy airstrikes and could be deployed on short notice.

“We can do this from anywhere in the country,” Gen. Hajizadeh said on state television the day after the launch.

The first stage of the rocket used a liquid-fueled Ghadr missile, which Iran has used several times in the past. It has a range of about 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles).

An intercontinental ballistic missile has a range of at least 5,500 kilometers. The rocket used by Iran last week can be converted into this type of weapon relatively easily, arms-control experts say.

Iran’s civilian space program uses outdated liquid-fuel technology, which requires vehicles that are less mobile and less viable for weapons systems.

The launch of the satellite, called Nour—or “Light”—also occurred with no warning. The surprise recalled North Korea’s 2017 test of its first intercontinental ballistic missile after years of secretive development while under international pressure to disarm. Concern about North Korea’s program, from enemies such as the U.S. and its biggest patron, China, stemmed mainly from the risk that the reclusive dictatorship might fit a nuclear warhead on the missile.

The international community has sought for decades to stop Iran’s leadership from obtaining nuclear weapons, most notably with the 2015 nuclear deal that imposed limits on Tehran’s nuclear enrichment in return for the lifting of sanctions.

Iran’s Missile Arsenal

Iran has developed one of the region's most sophisticated missile arsenals, including short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles remain a red line for the six world powers that signed the deal with Tehran. A United Nations resolution linked to the accord calls on Iran to not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Four of them—the U.S., U.K., France and Germany—condemned Iran’s satellite launch last week.

“This week’s launch of a military satellite…makes clear what we have said all along: Iran’s space program is neither peaceful nor entirely civilian,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement issued Saturday.

When the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, it said the accord didn’t do enough to curb Iran’s conventional military capabilities, including its missile program. The U.S. subsequently imposed economic sanctions on Iran and designated the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization.

Tehran says the Nour satellite was intended for peaceful purposes and didn’t violate the nuclear agreement, which doesn’t prohibit satellite launches. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif cited the U.N. Security Council resolution regarding the Iran nuclear deal, saying on Twitter: “Iran neither has nukes nor missiles ‘DESIGNED to be capable of carrying’ such horrific arms.”

Arms control experts doubt Iran will stop developing more sophisticated missile technology. As a next step, Iran is likely to develop its solid-fuel technology for the missile, which is in the first stage of the launch rocket, according to Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

Satellite imagery showed that Iran had already conducted tests in the desert of larger engines for possible future use, Mr. Lewis said.

“It’s quite plausible that within the next few years, Iran will test a system that can be used as a missile, which can reach most of Europe,” he said.

The Nour satellite launch marked a comeback for the Revolutionary Guard’s space program. In 2011, an explosion killed the architect behind Iran’s ballistic missile program, Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, along with over a dozen senior personnel. Iran said it was an accident, and afterward kept the program out of the limelight.

In recent months, the Guards have become more open about promoting their space achievements. In late 2019, the IRGC released footage featuring Mr. Moghaddam standing in front of a large, solid-fuel motor—a key component in intercontinental ballistic missiles—followed by footage in February of the Salman motor, which was used last week.

U.S. sanctions meant to curb Iran’s military ambitions have forced it to cut its military spending, which shrunk 15% in 2019, to $12.6 billion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

To advance its military technology, Iran continues to invest heavily in its premier security force. In Iran’s 2020 budget, the Revolutionary Guard was allocated a 22% increase to $4.4 billion from about $3.6 billion, despite overall cuts to the defense budget. Spending for the military space program wasn’t disclosed.

Iran is unlikely to risk a military confrontation with the U.S. or wreck relations with European countries that provide tenuous links to global markets. As has been the case with its nuclear program, Iran is likely to adopt a gradual step-by-step approach to gain political leverage in dealings with Western countries, analysts said. The launch of the Nour satellite was the latest such move.

“If they manage to develop these capabilities, and are willing to put them on the table,” said Mr. Hinz, the arms control expert, “it would give them an insane amount of leverage.”

Photo: The April 22 launch of Iran’s Nour military satellite, shown in this official image, used technology that experts said could be used for intercontinental ballistic missiles. - SEPAHNEWS ANDOUT/SHUTTERSTOCK

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-satellite-launch-reveals-gains-in-missile-program-11588330800