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Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes on the full range of topics relating to national defense, foreign policy and international security. Dowd’s commentaries and essays have appeared in Policy Review, Parameters, Military Officer, The American Legion Magazine, The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, The Claremont Review of Books, World Politics Review, The Wall Street Journal Europe, The Jerusalem Post, The Financial Times Deutschland, The Washington Times, The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Examiner, The Detroit News, The Sacramento Bee, The Vancouver Sun, The National Post, The Landing Zone, Current, The World & I, The American Enterprise, Fraser Forum, American Outlook, The American and the online editions of Weekly Standard, National Review and American Interest. Beyond his work in opinion journalism, Dowd has served as an adjunct professor and university lecturer; congressional aide; and administrator, researcher and writer at leading think tanks, including the Hudson Institute, Sagamore Institute and Fraser Institute. An award-winning writer, Dowd has been interviewed by Fox News Channel, Cox News Service, The Washington Times, The National Post, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and numerous radio programs across North America. In addition, his work has been quoted by and/or reprinted in The Guardian, CBS News, BBC News and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dowd holds degrees from Butler University and Indiana University. Follow him at twitter.com/alanwdowd.

ASCF News

Scott Tilley is a Senior Fellow at the American Security Council Foundation, where he writes the “Technical Power” column, focusing on the societal and national security implications of advanced technology in cybersecurity, space, and foreign relations.

He is an emeritus professor at the Florida Institute of Technology. Previously, he was with the University of California, Riverside, Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute, and IBM. His research and teaching were in the areas of computer science, software & systems engineering, educational technology, the design of communication, and business information systems.

He is president and founder of the Center for Technology & Society, president and co-founder of Big Data Florida, past president of INCOSE Space Coast, and a Space Coast Writers’ Guild Fellow.

He has authored over 150 academic papers and has published 28 books (technical and non-technical), most recently Systems Analysis & Design (Cengage, 2020), SPACE (Anthology Alliance, 2019), and Technical Justice (CTS Press, 2019). He wrote the “Technology Today” column for FLORIDA TODAY from 2010 to 2018.

He is a popular public speaker, having delivered numerous keynote presentations and “Tech Talks” for a general audience. Recent examples include the role of big data in the space program, a four-part series on machine learning, and a four-part series on fake news.

He holds a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Victoria (1995).

Contact him at stilley@cts.today.

Looking Ahead to 2022 - COVID-19 and The Great Resignation

Monday, January 31, 2022

Categories: ASCF News National Preparedness Technical Power

Comments: 0

By Scott Tilley - ASCF Senior Fellow

January 20, 2022 - The start of a new year affords us the opportunity to glance into our crystal ball and forecast which developments are likely to have significant impacts on our economy, national security, and society in general. Regarding technical power, I think two topics are interesting candidates for 2022: COVID-19 (yes, the pandemic will still be with us for a while yet) and The Great Resignation.

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COVID-19: I have been writing about the pandemic for the last two years, and I genuinely wish I was not covering it anymore. Sadly, COVID-19 is not going anywhere soon. We are making progress nationally, with the recent announcement of rapid tests being made widely available for free to all Americans (albeit relatively late in the game, and only four tests per household), the announced distribution of 400 million N95 masks, Pfizer’s new oral antiviral treatment PAXLOVID, and the continued rollout of mRNA vaccines. These are all welcome developments, but our vaccination rate is the second-lowest in the developed world (only Russia is lower than us), which is one of the reasons why the Omicron variant continues to rage across the country.

Nevertheless, the scientific prowess that went into the rapid development of these tools in our anti-COVID-19 toolbox are all examples of technical power. Whoever controls their manufacturing and deployment effectively controls much of the world economy, and thankfully, we’re in the lead – at least nationally. That’s why we need to maintain funding, both private and public, for fundamental research in areas such as biomedical engineering, cybersecurity, health sciences, information technology, and smart manufacturing.

However, the definition of “pandemic” is a global health emergency, and it’s here that we’re falling short. Unless more parts of the world become fully vaccinated, we will continue to have negative economic impacts at home. In addition, global supply chains will remain problematic. More importantly, we run the risks of new variants emerging. If that happens, and the variant is highly transmissible, extremely virulent, and possibly immune to our current vaccines, we’ll be back at square one.

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The Great Resignation: Not to be confused with “The Great Reset,” which is a theory of how the world order is undergoing structural change (and a good topic for a future column), “The Great Resignation” refers to the unique phenomenon of people quitting their jobs in droves. In the past, we’ve had mass layoffs in various industries, the movement of people to new locations as they search for work (e.g., during the Great Depression in the 1930s), and changes in the workplace due to automation. But the last two years have seen something quite remarkable: people leaving the workforce of their own accord.

Several factors are driving this change in our economy. COVID-19 is undoubtedly one of the main drivers, as people were forced to work from home. The coronavirus also forced many employees to reconsider where they want to live: in urban centers or remote locations. Urban centers are lively but expensive and often involve lengthy and frustrating commutes. Outlying areas are quieter and cheaper, but they lack the social interaction that big cities provide. It seems, for now, the escape to the suburbs and countryside is winning. This movement has been made possible by novel technologies that have been rolled out incredibly rapidly, increased broadband availability, and a fundamental rethink of work/life balance.

Working from home is not for everyone. It is already changing the face of our nation, but of course, not everyone can work from home. Essential workers, first responders, and people in the service industry must go into work every day. But with so many professionals leaving the cities, the core parts of our large urban centers are at risk of being hollowed out. Moreover, the technical power behind remote working allows the work to be done anywhere – all over the world. As a result, we may see another wave of offshoring of well-paying jobs, impacting white-collar workers like never before. So be careful what you wish for.

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