North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s Return Affirms Status Quo in Talks
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s appearance in state media, after a near three-week absence set off rumors about his health, reaffirms a status quo that is unlikely to shake up stalled denuclearization talks with the U.S. or change the regime’s pattern of weapons testing.
Mr. Kim’s attendance at an event on Friday, seemingly healthy and in charge, ended speculation of a leadership shake-up that could reorient Pyongyang’s approach to nuclear talks or provocation. With Kim still leading the country, close North Korea watchers anticipate an uneventful year for denuclearization talks ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.
Talks between the U.S. and North Korea remain gridlocked, having made no discernible progress since early last year and the three high-profile meetings between the two countries’ leaders. Pyongyang has already conducted multiple weapons tests this year. President Trump has a long list of domestic issues to handle, including the Covid-19 pandemic and his re-election campaign. Mr. Kim has warned sanctions bruising the regime’s economy may be around for a while.
“The age of talking is kind of over,” said Olivia Enos, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, in Washington. Even with Mr. Kim alive, she added, “it’s pretty unlikely there would be any summit before November.”
North Korea signaled a diplomatic slowdown early this year, when Mr. Kim, in a policy speech published Jan. 1, declared talks with Washington were over unless the U.S. dropped its “hostile policy” toward the isolated regime. The North Korean leader urged citizens to tighten their belts and gird for a protracted life under sanctions—calling it a “fait accompli.” He vowed to never trade the country’s dignity for economic relief.
Pyongyang reaffirmed that stance in late March, after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo publicly urged other Group of Seven nations to maintain diplomatic and economic pressure against the Kim regime. “We will go our own way. We want the U.S. not to bother us,” a senior North Korean official was quoted as saying in a March 30 state-media report.
The two countries haven’t held formal talks since October. Security experts say the U.S. presidential election campaign could serve as a catalyst for talks with the Trump administration, if former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, looks likely to win in November. Mr. Trump could reach out to the North to score a foreign-policy victory to impress voters, or Mr. Kim could try to strike a sanctions deal before a changeover in the U.S. administration, though Mr. Trump is unlikely to cede much ground, said Andrew Yeo, a specialist in North Korean studies at Catholic University of America in Washington.
“Time is definitely more on North Korea’s side,” Mr. Yeo said.
The two sides still have yet to square key differences over how, and when, Pyongyang should relinquish its nuclear arsenal. The U.S. leverage rests with maintaining international sanctions that block Mr. Kim from delivering his promise to revitalize the regime’s cash-strapped economy.
But the North Korean leader, barring an overthrow of his regime, has a lifetime appointment, giving him some ability to wait and see if U.S. strategies shift over time. Mr. Biden, at a January presidential debate in Iowa, said he wouldn’t meet Mr. Kim unconditionally.
The Trump administration has touted the North’s lack of nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missile launches as a sign its approach is working. But Mr. Kim early this year said he no longer felt bound to a moratorium on long-range testing, even promising to unveil a new strategic weapon soon.
North Korea experts expect the Kim regime to continue short- and medium-range weapons launches this year, though they see any major tests as unlikely, knowing that Mr. Trump is unlikely to yield much in negotiation concessions with the November elections not far away, said Kim Heung-Kyu, a political-science professor at South Korea’s Ajou University.
“North Korea’s course is already set,” Prof. Kim said. “They know Trump will be OK so long as they don’t test ICBMs, and allow Trump to brag about his supposed success with North Korea.”
The prospects for a return to dialogue with the North may rest less on sanctions relief than on the threat of the coronavirus. Pyongyang has claimed it has zero confirmed coronavirus cases to date, though health experts familiar with the North’s health system remain skeptical.
The U.S. and South Korea have offered coronavirus assistance, and if the North’s situation falls into a humanitarian crisis, it could force the Kim regime to engage, security experts say.
North Korea canceled two mass celebrations in February, including a Feb. 16 commemoration honoring the birthday of Kim Jong Il, the leader’s father. Photographs taken at Friday’s event, held at a fertilizer factory north of Pyongyang, showed hundreds of attendees wearing face masks—though Kim Jong Un and his close aides didn’t.
South Korea’s government believes Mr. Kim didn’t have a medical procedure during the 20-day stretch when he didn’t appear in state media, a presidential Blue House official told reporters on Sunday. Seoul had strongly asserted over the past week that Mr. Kim was alive and well.
The fallout from Mr. Kim’s return to the public eye continued Monday, when two high-profile North Korean defectors—both of whom won seats last month in South Korea’s legislature—apologized for their speculation. Ji Seong-ho, who won global attention for hoisting his crutches at Mr. Trump’s 2018 State of the Union address, expressed regret after claiming he was 99% sure Mr. Kim was dead.
Thae Yong-ho, a former senior Pyongyang diplomat, had said he believed Mr. Kim’s condition was so bad he couldn’t stand. “One of the reasons I was elected was to offer accurate analysis and prospects about North Korea,” Mr. Thae said in a Monday apology. “But the high amount of expectation is matched by my disappointment.”
Photo: People in a park in Pyongyang on Saturday watch a state-media broadcast showing leader Kim Jong Un attending a ceremony to mark the opening of a fertilizer factory. - CHA SONG HO/ASSOCIATED PRESS
